Service Plays Thursday 08/20/09

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

THE SPORTS ADVISORS

THURSDAY, AUGUST 20

NFL PRESEASON

Cincinnati (0-1 SU and ATS) at New England (1-0 SU and ATS)

Patriots’ fans should get to see Tom Brady on the field at Gillette Stadium for the first time since he injured his knee in the regular-season opener last year when New England entertains the Bengals.

Brady took 24 snaps and played virtually the entire first half a week ago in New England’s 27-25 win in Philadelphia as a three-point underdog. Brady is expected to start this game but likely won’t play as long as last week as coach Bill Belichick is trying to identify his backup. A preseason battle has ensued between second-year pro Kevin O’Connell and five-year NFL veteran Andrew Walter, so expect to see each for a good amount of time in this one.

Cincinnati’s starting QB Carson Palmer will sit this game out after injuring his ankle in last week’s 17-7 loss at New Orleans as a three-point road underdog. That leaves No. 2 quarterback J.T. O’Sullivan as the starter, and he’s slated to play at least through the middle of the second quarter, with Palmer’s brother, Jordan, taking over the play-calling duties the remainder of the contest.

The Patriots were winless in August last year, both SU and ATS, and they haven’t had a winning preseason since going 4-0 SU and ATS in 2003. At home, they are 4-6 SU and ATS in preseason action the last five years, including 1-3 SU and ATS the last two Augusts in Foxborough.

The Bengals have been the picture of preseason mediocrity since coach Marvin Lewis took over in 2003, going 12-13 SU and 13-12 ATS. However, even with last week’s loss to the Saints, they are 4-3 SU and 5-2 ATS as a visitor the past three years in August (all as an underdog), winning both road games last preseason.

The over is 7-4 in New England’s last 11 preseason games (4-1 at home).

ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER


Philadelphia (0-1 SU and ATS) at Indianapolis (0-1 SU and ATS)

The Eagles have been making headlines all week, but the reason for those headlines will not be in the building when they take the field at Lucas Oil Stadium for a battle with the Colts.

Philadelphia signed former Falcons QB Michael Vick a week ago but due to his suspension, he is unable to play in the preseason until next week. Eagles coach Andy Reid said QB Donovan McNabb and the Philadelphia starters will play the first half tonight. From there, expect to see current third-string QB A.J. Feeley play the entire second half with backup QB Kevin Kolb still out with a knee injury and Vick unable to suit up.

Indianapolis’ starting offense was on the field for just six plays in Friday’s 13-3 home loss to the Vikings as a four-point home underdog, with starting QB Peyton Manning getting sacked on three of the six plays. New coach Jim Caldwell announced Manning and the rest of his starters will be on the field for about 20 plays this week. With longtime backup QB Jim Sorgi still out injured, expect rookie QB Curtis Painter to get the majority of the snaps in the second half, with another rookie – former Boston College QB Chris Crane – seeing mop-up action late in the fourth quarter.

The Eagles lost 27-25 at home to the Patriots in their exhibition opener, falling as three-point home favorites. They’ve had just one winning preseason in Reid’s decade-long tenure at the helm, also managing just three .500 exhibition campaigns in this stretch. Philly is just 2-8 SU and 4-6 ATS in exhibition road games the last five years.

Including last week’s 10-point loss to Minnesota, the Colts are now 3-16 SU and 5-14 ATS in preseason play since 2005. During this stretch, Indianapolis has lost eight of nine preseason home games both SU and ATS and is 3-8 ATS as an underdog.

Indy is holding out 10 players from this week’s game, including six starters, while the Eagles are leaving eight regulars at home, including four of their projected starters on the offensive line.

The Eagles have topped the total in eight of their last 10 exhibition games while Indianapolis has stayed under the total in four straight preseason contests.

ATS ADVANTAGE: PHILADELPHIA


NATIONAL LEAGUE

Chicago Cubs (61-57) at L.A. Dodgers (71-50)

The struggling Cubs continue their West Coast road trip, opening a four-game set in Los Angeles with lefty Tom Gorzelanny (5-2, 5.24) on the mound opposite Dodgers veteran Jeff Weaver (5-4, 3.77).

Chicago salvaged the finale of a three-game set in San Diego on Wednesday, getting a superb one-hit pitching performance from Rich Harden in a 7-1 victory over the Padres. Despite the win, the Cubs are just 3-7 in their last 10 and still nine games under .500 on the road this season at 26-35. Chicago is on further slides of 8-20 on the road against winning teams, 1-4 against the N.L. West and 0-5 against teams with a winning record.

The Dodgers just dropped two of three at home against the N.L. Central-leading Cardinals, capped by Wednesday’s 3-2 loss. Los Angeles has struggled lately both overall (7-11 in August) and in front of the home fans (1-5 in the last six). The Dodgers are on positive runs of 22-10 in their last 32 at home against southpaws and 9-4 in their last 13 Thursday contests.

Gorzelanny, who was traded from Pittsburgh last month, is making his fourth start in a Cubs’ uniform and coming off a strong home outing on Saturday, holding his former team to one run on three hits in five innings of a 3-1 win. The former Pirates’ starter has made two career starts against the Dodgers (both in 2007), giving up three runs in each outing over a total of 12 2/3 innings (4.26 ERA).

These teams split four meetings at Wrigley Field at the end of May, but including last year’s first-round playoff series that Los Angeles swept in three games, the Dodgers are on a 7-3 roll against Chicago (3-1 at home).

Weaver has made only one start since July 11, going just three innings on Aug. 12 in San Francisco, holding the Giants scoreless on two hits with L.A. eventually losing 3-2 in 10 innings Weaver has a 3.08 ERA in his six starts, but hasn’t made it past five innings in any of those games. The right-hander is 2-0 with a 3.11 ERA in 11 home appearances this season, but just three starts, the last coming on May 20.

The last time Weaver faced the Cubs as a starter was in 2007 for the Mariners and he allowed three runs in six innings of a 5-4 loss at Wrigley. Dating back to when he was a regular starter, the Dodgers are 7-2 in Weaver’s last nine home starts (2-1 this year) and 7-3 when he starts against a team with a winning record.

Chicago is on “over” runs of 19-8 on Thursdays, 5-1 against the N.L. West and 5-1 on the road, but the under has been the play in six of its last seven series openers. Los Angeles has stayed under the total in five of Weaver’s last seven starts and four of his last five at home, but as a team, the Dodgers are on “over” streaks of 10-5-1 at home and 6-2-1 at home against teams with losing road records. Finally, this series has stayed under the total in four of the last five meetings overall and five of the last seven clashes in Hollywood.

ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL DUNKEL

Philadelphia at Indianapolis
The preseason continues Thursday night with the Colts hosting the Eagles. Indianapolis is the pick (+3) according to Dunkel, which has the Eagles favored by just 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (+3). Here are all of this week's preseason picks.

THURSDAY, AUGUST 20

Game 401-402: Cincinnati at New England
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 116.684; New England 121.687
Dunkel Line: New England by 5; 41
Vegas Line: New England by 7; 37
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+7); Over

Game 403-404: Philadelphia at Indianapolis
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 120.164; Indianapolis 118.508
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1 1/2; 32
Vegas Line: Philadelphia by 3; 36
Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (+3); Under

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL LONG SHEET


Week 2

Thursday, August 20


CINCINNATI (0 - 1) at NEW ENGLAND (1 - 0) - 8/20/2009, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in road games against conference opponents since 1993.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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PHILADELPHIA (0 - 1) at INDIANAPOLIS (0 - 1) - 8/20/2009, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 10-22 ATS (-14.2 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1993.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL SHORT SHEET


Week 2

Thursday, 8/20/2009

CINCINNATI at NEW ENGLAND, 7:30 PM ET
CINCINNATI: 10-2 ATS Away vs. conference
NEW ENGLAND: 10-15 ATS off a road game

PHILADELPHIA at INDIANAPOLIS, 8:00 PM ET FOX
PHILADELPHIA: 10-22 ATS the line is +3 to -3
INDIANAPOLIS: 11-2 ATS off DD loss

 

[polishrebel]

The Gold Medal Club 24K(0-0) 18K (2-3) 14 K (1-1)

403 Philadelphia Eagles @ 404 Indianappolis Colts 8/20 8:00 pm

PLAY OVER 36 24K

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mighty Quinn

Mighty hit with Twins Wednesday.

Today it's the Braves. The surplus is 1,155 sirignanos.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Hondo

August 20, 2009

Hondo, who had his winning streak stopped at six Tuesday night, started another one last night when the Angels wiped the smile off Chief Wahoo's face to lower the deficit to 220 covingtons.

Tonight, he's looking long with Davis -- 10 units on the D'backs.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Arthur Ralph Sports
61-33 run on Bonus Plays

Thurs StL Cards

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Scott Ferrall

MLB FREE PICKS FOR THURSDAY
PICKS ARE IN ALL CAPS


Angels (Lackey)

CLEVELAND (MASTERSON) +140


Seattle (Rowland-Smith)

DETROIT (WASHBURN) -155


Atlanta (Kawakami)

METS (SANTANA) -130


RUN TOTALS

Atlanta / Mets OVER 7 ½

Arizona / Philadelphia OVER 9

San Francisco / Cincinnati UNDER 8

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Lady Luck: Today's WNBA best bets

San Antonio Silver Stars at Atlanta Dream (-4, 165)

The only thing missing in the Atlanta Dream’s recent run toward a berth in the playoffs is a lock-down defensive effort.

If they can get one against the San Antonio Silver Spurs (11-13), they should be headed toward the postseason in the franchise’s second year of existence.

There has been a major steam on the total in this game, which opened at 160 but is now at 165 at most sportsbooks. This seems to make sense considering the teams have combined to average 172 points over their past five contests.

However, despite averaging 87 points per game in their last five outings, the Silver Stars are still just seventh in the league in offense at 76.5 points per game.

Atlanta (13-11), which has won and covered in six of its past seven games, has the league’s 11th-ranked defense at 81 points per game.

Dream coach Marynell Meadors recently told the media she was pleased with the team’s balanced scoring but was looking for her club to get tougher on the other end of the floor.

Such an effort against a struggling San Antonio club, which is just 4-5 since the All-Star break, seems a good place to start.

Pick: Under 165


Indiana Fever at Sacramento Monarchs (+5.5, 149)

Sacramento’s recent road play has given Monarchs fans hope. The team's play at home has left their faithful feeling hopeless.

The good news for potential Monarchs backers is that Thursday’s opponent is the Indiana Fever, who they have thrived against in recent seasons.

The Monarchs (7-18) need a home win and they know it. They have lost three straight in front of the home fans, including a 78-61 loss to the Los Angeles Sparks in their last outing.

“I was proud of my team because we never quit, we played to the end and we were trying to get better,” coach John Whisenant told the media after the game. “We still have nine games left. Six of them are at home. For our fans, we need to turn things around here and win.”

Although the Fever (19-5) boast the WNBA’s best record, they are 2-7 ATS in their last nine against Sacramento. They have not won on the Monarchs’ home floor since June 2003.

Pick: Monarchs

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Cappers Access

Patriots
Colts
Tigers(RL)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Joe wiz Bonus Plays

tigers
stl/sd under
Fla/Hou under

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Today's MLB Picks
DUNKEL

Florida at Houston

The Marlins look to build on their 7-2 record in Josh Johnson's last 9 starts as a road favorite. Florida is the pick (-115) according to Dunkel, which has the Marlins favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: Florida (-115). Here are all of today's picks.

THURSDAY, AUGUST 20
Time Posted: 7:30 a.m. EST
Game 951-952: San Francisco at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Cain) 15.418; Cincinnati (Harang) 14.657
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1; 9
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-130); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-130); Over
Game 953-954: Arizona at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Davis) 13.828; Philadelphia (Blanton) 16.855
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 3; 10
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-180); 9
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-180); Over
Game 955-956: Colorado at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Hammel) 16.185; Washington (Mock) 15.619
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Colorado (-145); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (-145); Under
Game 957-958: Atlanta at NY Mets
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Kawakami) 15.092; NY Mets (Santana) 15.290
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-130); 7
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (-130); Under
Game 959-960: Florida at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: Florida (Johnson) 15.263; Houston (Rodriguez) 14.928
Dunkel Line: Florida by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Florida (-115); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Florida (-115); Over
Game 961-962: St. Louis at San Diego
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Pineiro) 15.823; San Diego (Stauffer) 13.638
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 2; 7
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-160); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-160); Under
Game 963-964: Chicago Cubs at LA Dodgers
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Gorzelanny) 15.226; LA Dodgers (Weaver) 14.993
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 965-966: Seattle at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Rowland-Smith) 15.434; Detroit (Washburn) 14.884
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Detroit (-160); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+150); Under
Game 967-968: Boston at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Lester) 15.169; Toronto (Cecil) 15.385
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Boston (-170); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+160); Over
Game 969-970: Baltimore at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Matusz) 15.030; Tampa Bay (Shields) 14.260
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-300); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+270); Under
Game 971-972: LA Angels at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Lackey) 16.543; Cleveland (Masterson) 15.797
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-150); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-150); Under
Game 973-974: Minnesota at Texas
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Swarzak) 16.793; Texas (Holland) 15.742
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1; 11
Vegas Line: Texas (-200); 10
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+180); Over

 

[BiggDogg5n2]

Ray "Fastrain" Toppin

Went 3-0 yesterday
5-2 last 2 days
Thursday's Playz

Angels -153...

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MLB Computer Picks

Los Angeles Angels -155
Tampa Bay Rays -300 *** (best bet)
St. Louis Cardinals -170

 

[mp5070]

Super Sports Group

Atlanta v. NY 7pm
PICK: UNDER 7.5 +105 (8*) Best Bet

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Kiki Sports

3* GOY is San Fran.

 

[Frankie Boy]

Rocco Spacamuro
100* Colts +3

 

[BiggDogg5n2]

Went 3-0 yesterday
5-2 last 2 days
Thursday's Playz

Angels -153...

Added
Minn/Texas Over 10 -120

WNBA
Atlanta -4